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Black Swan Thinking

Industrialising Innovation

Engineering innovation is rarely held back by the technology alone.

Developing the technology is one challenge. Building the business, relationships and capability to turn it into commercial and industrial reality is another.

Black Swan Thinking works with engineering and technology organisations when progress is proving harder than expected, the next decision matters, or the existing approach isn't getting them where they need to be.

We bring independent engineering and commercial judgement, challenge established thinking and help make the changes needed to move forward.

Why Black Swan Thinking

Seeing the problem. Joining the dots. Getting things done.

Complex engineering challenges rarely sit neatly within one discipline or department.

A technical decision affects manufacturing. A commercial opportunity depends on delivery capability. An investment decision may be shaped by assumptions nobody has thought to question.

Founded by Kate Barnard, Black Swan Thinking draws on nearly 30 years of experience across engineering delivery, industrial research, entrepreneurship and innovation commercialisation.

That experience, combined with a broad perspective across sectors and emerging technologies, helps identify what is preventing progress and how to make the changes needed.

How Black Swan Thinking works

Question. Challenge. Enable.

  1. 01

    Question

    Understand the challenge

    We begin by listening. What are you trying to achieve? What is preventing progress? What has already been tried, and what assumptions are shaping the current approach?

  2. 02

    Challenge

    Test the thinking

    A focused, paid discovery engagement allows us to examine the problem more closely, challenge assumptions and identify where intervention could make a meaningful difference.

  3. 03

    Enable

    Help make it happen

    Where further support is needed, Black Swan Thinking can help establish a different approach, strengthen decision-making and work alongside the organisation to put the necessary capability in place.

The principle

We build the capability rather than becoming it.

Experience

Experience that informs our judgement

Black Swan Thinking was founded by Kate Barnard, a Chartered Engineer and Chartered Environmentalist, and a Fellow of both the Institution of Mechanical Engineers and the Association for Project Management.

Her career spans major aerospace engineering programmes, industrial research, technology businesses, cross-sector collaboration and independent innovation investment assessment.

She has worked within large industrial organisations, founded and led early-stage businesses and supported organisations facing complex engineering and commercial decisions.

About Kate and Black Swan Thinking

FAQ

Common questions

What kinds of organisations does Black Swan Thinking work with?

Black Swan Thinking works with organisations developing, commercialising or delivering complex engineering technologies, including established engineering businesses, technology scale-ups and organisations making significant innovation or industrial capability decisions.

When should we involve Black Swan Thinking?

Ideally before a significant decision or commitment, or when progress has stalled and the existing approach is not producing the intended results.

Do we need to know exactly what help we need?

No. Organisations often recognise that something is preventing progress without being certain of the cause. An initial conversation can help establish whether further investigation would be worthwhile.

Will Black Swan Thinking deliver the work or just provide recommendations?

That depends on the challenge. Black Swan Thinking can provide independent review, help establish a different approach or work alongside an organisation to put the necessary capability in place.

How does an engagement begin?

Usually with an initial conversation to understand the situation and establish whether there is a good fit. Where further investigation is needed, Black Swan Thinking can propose a focused, paid discovery engagement with an agreed scope and outputs.

Facing a difficult engineering or commercial challenge?

Whether you're considering a significant investment, trying to move a technology towards industrial use or struggling to turn technical capability into growth, an initial conversation can help establish where to begin.

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